Oddsmaking: Will Thom Yorke Dance Away With The Short-Form Music Video Grammy?

Unlike MTV's Video Music Awards, which usually reward some combination of pop excellence, symbolic audacity, and likelihood of being controversial, the Grammys' short-form music video category is a lot like the Oscars. They don't always pick the best videos—this year's list omits such highlights as Nicki Minaj's "Super Bass," Ke$ha's "Blow," the Beastie Boys' "Make Some Noise," and Beyoncé's "Girls (Who Run the World)"—but they do a good job of capturing the middlebrow zeitgeist, recognizing those videos that manage to combine critical respectability with popular appeal. Looking through their past winners, they generally pick the right one from the bunch ("Opposites Attract" in 1991, "Losing My Religion" in 1992, "Digging in the Dirt" in 1993). Their blind spot is the same one in every other category: older artists. That's why "Free as a Bird" beat "Tonight, Tonight" in 1997, and Johnny Cash's "God's Gonna Cut You Down" won over Feist's "1234" in 2008. With no dead artists eligible this year, will the righteous (Adele) triumph? Or will Grammy voters give in to their lazier impulses and just pick OK Go?

Adele, "Rolling in the Deep"

WHO: I think we've passed the point in this feature where I need to tell you who Adele is.
PROS: Actually the best video of the bunch: gorgeous, perfectly showcasing Adele, and subtly effective in relating the visuals to the emotional core of the song. Plus, it's people playing real instruments in an abandoned house while looking sad, like a sensitive 13-year-old's idea of authenticity.
CONS: Will voters have Adele fatigue? Unlike other categories, where Adele is the clear respectable choice, here she's up against such critical luminaries as Radiohead. With no Bruno Mars or Katy Perry to split the pop vote, she could suffer.
THE GIMMICK: A vibrating house.
ODDS: 3-2

Memory Tapes, "Yes I Know"

WHO: One-man chillwave act came gone straight synthpop.
PROS: Mixes moody, black-and-white footage with bluntly obvious visual effects.
CONS: Nominated in no other categories, and practically unknown in Grammy terms (he's on Carpark), it's unclear even how this got nominated; its chances of picking up underdog votes are tempered by the Brooklyn-centric visuals and the music's lack of intrinsic appeal to traditional Grammy voters.
THE GIMMICK: His body dissolves into a latticework of rubbery strands.
ODDS: 30-1

OK Go, "All is Not Lost"

WHO: The dudes on the treadmills.
PROS: Pressed-for-time Grammy voters may just assume an OK Go video must be the best video of the year, given past performance.
CONS: Despite being a pretty neat video, it failed entirely to go viral; their Super Bowl ad from last week already has more views than this. That may because there's so much going on (screen splitting! One-take live performance! Feet spelling out letters! Interactivity! Dance routine!) that it's hard to encapsulate in a quicklink.
THE GIMMICK: Multiple; see above.
ODDS: 3-1

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