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Daily Flog: Deep inside AIG -- the profits of doom

Startling data about past money-making on AIG's misery, but first . . .

NO PARTICULAR ORDER:

L.A. Times: 'Move over, Al Gore: John McCain invented the BlackBerry'

IRIN: 'SOMALIA: "When you are hungry you will eat anything that does not eat you" '

CNN: 'Oil rallies as Wall Street gets a lifeline'

Salon: 'Sarah Palin's wasteful ways'

Slate: 'Fannie Mae and the Vast Bipartisan Conspiracy'

N.Y. Post: 'Rich Uncle: Feds "Buy" Insurance Giant AIG in $85B Rescue'

N.Y. Post: 'Mets' Division Lead Goes Up in Choke in D.C.'

N.Y. Post: 'Barbra At Her Woozy Best'

Slate: Hitchens: 'Pakistan is the problem: and Barack Obama seems to be the only candidate willing to face it'

Onion: 'Palin Unveils 9/11 Firefighter Cousin, Reformed Lesbian Niece, Naturalized Mexican Half Brother'


On the heels of yesterday's stunning bailout (N.Y. Times story) of giant insurer American International Group, you'll be reading stories about how the billionaire status of its former CEO (and still major shareholder) Maurice "Hank" Greenberg has taken a beating because of the recent precipitous drop in AIG's stock price.

Like yesterday's laughable New York Post story by James Covert:

As the company he built teeters on the brink, former American International Group boss Hank Greenberg can't insure his own financial health.

The 83-year-old billionaire, who left AIG in 2005 amid an accounting scandal, has lost more than $6 billion in the past week, and is on the verge of losing his billionaire status altogether as AIG shares continue their free-fall.

hank-greenberg150.jpgSave your sympathy. What you're unlikely to read is that Greenberg, a pal of Henry Kissinger's, already bailed himself out before the Fed bailed out AIG. By the way, Greenberg didn't just "leave" AIG's boardroom "amid" a scandal. He was forced out and then was formally accused of fraud by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. (See CNN's May 2005 story for details.)

I know it's hackneyed to say "profits of doom," but it is what it is. (Oops, I did it again.)

This is how the other half of 1 percent of the richest Americans live:

SEC records reveal an incredible (only to us commoners) string of transactions since Greenberg's ouster in which he and his personally controlled entities realized hundreds of millions of dollars from selling their AIG stock.

Let's assume that Hammerin' Hank didn't know that his company's bubble was about to burst.

AIG is still (or was still, until you bought it) Greenberg's company despite his being forced out of the CEO job in 2005 because of alleged shenanigans for which he's still under investigation by the SEC and New York's current attorney general. It's still his company because he still controls the biggest chunk of shares in AIG, which is the world's biggest insurer.

As of July 15, 2008, three years after his ouster, one of Greenberg's other companies, his privately owned Starr International, still held 228 million shares of AIG. So it looks as if he really has taken a beating to his multibillionaire status. For instance, at 9:12 this morning, AIG's share price had fallen to $2.17. Last year at this time it was trading at about $70 a share.

But ever since his ouster, he and Starr have been selling gigantic chunks of shares for astounding proceeds, upwards of $20 million a day — day after day during some months.

Now, I'm not saying that this is unusual behavior on Wall Street. In fact, this kind of schmuckery is the norm, but it's almost never pointed out in mainstream news outlets.

Here's a timeline that you probably won't see elsewhere in the initial coverage of your latest bailout of rich people and their companies:

June 2007: AIG sues ex-CEO Greenberg and Greenberg's ex-CFO for $1 billion in damages "stemming from accounting troubles" on Hammerin' Hank's watch. MarketWatch's Peg Brickley writes at the time:

[The complaint] was filed in a lawsuit started in Delaware's Court of Chancery by AIG shareholders angered at the high cost of dealing with regulatory probes of sham transactions, financial restatements and securities class actions, who felt AIG executives should be held to account.

August 2007: AIG calls its exposure to subprime debt "minimal."

September 2007: Greenberg and his Starr International continue their immense sell-off of AIG stock, which is still priced at $66 or $67 a share.

The following figures are from SEC filings for Greenberg's transactions, through Starr, of AIG's shares. (See Yahoo's compilation.) They're listed by day, shares of AIG owned by Greenberg's Starr International and sold to stupid investors, and sale proceeds — I call them profits because Greenberg had paid either comparatively little or nothing to acquire those shares):

Sept. 4: 400,000 AIG shares sold, $26.4 million profit.

Sept. 5: 900 shares sold, $59,000 profit

Sept. 18: 400,000 shares sold, $26.6 million profit

Sept. 19: 800,000 shares sold, $53.9 million profit

Sept. 20: 300,000 shares sold, $20.1 million profit

Sept. 21: 300,000 shares sold, $20.1 million profit

Sept. 24: 275,400 shares sold, $18.5 million profit

Sept. 25: 324,600 shares sold, $21.8 million profit

Sept. 26: 300,000 shares sold, $20.1 million profit

Sept. 27: 300,000 shares sold, $20.2 million profit

Sept. 28: 300,000 shares sold, $20.2 million profit

Total for just that month? Close to a quarter of a billion dollars. (And that doesn't even count Greenberg's proceeds on his own sales of AIG stock. I'd give you those figures but my calculator overheated.)

October 17, 2007: Starr's profit-taking on AIG shares suddenly stops, according to the Yahoo compilation of SEC figures, only two weeks before AIG is about to reveal its third-quarter financials to the rest of Wall Street.

November 2007: Commentators are already turning really sour on AIG's stock, in part because of AIG's secrecy. At the same time, AIG management insists that things are hunky-dory despite its insuring the companies that are ensnared in the mortgage crisis.

For instance, TV loudmouth Jim Cramer, who often refers to himself in the third person, writes on the afternoon of November 7, 2007, a Wednesday:

Don't buy AIG, Jim Cramer said Wednesday on CNBC's Stop Trading! segment. . . .

Cramer said the stock . . . can't be bought ahead of Wednesday evening's earnings report because investors don't know how big the losses are going to be on AIG's portfolios of subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations and the like. What's worse, Cramer added, is that there's no reason to believe investors will have any more clarity after tonight's report.

And what is AIG's report that night? The AP's Madlen Read tells us the next day, on November 8, 2007:

The world's largest insurer may not have invested as much in mortgage-backed assets as the world's biggest banks, but American International Group Inc.'s exposure to the rocky credit and housing markets was enough to dampen its third-quarter profit.

Losses in AIG's investment portfolio, credit-swap portfolio and mortgage-insurance business added up to about $1.4 billion, and caused net income to fall by 27 percent compared with last year's third quarter.

Back in August, AIG called exposure to subprime debt "minimal." On Wednesday, it maintained that despite some losses due to mortgage-backed bonds, its exposure to the debt remains "high quality," with "substantial protection." . . .

Shares fell $1.70, or 2.9 percent, to $56.20 in after-hours trading when the report was released. They had plunged almost 7 percent to close at $57.90 in regular trading Wednesday.

December 13, 2007: Jim Cramer isn't buying AIG's line — or its stock. He writes:

AIG . . . has been adamant that it hasn't been affected by the recent slew of bad loans, but to say it is not enough. [T]he company needs to show it by disclosing its information.

December 20, 2007: Hank Greenberg himself exercises his options to acquire 3.7 million shares of AIG. The same day, his Starr International entity disposes of 4.8 million shares of AIG in a non-open-market transaction.

September 16, 2008: Wall Street finally has enough information on AIG. The government panics and bails out the company, saying it has to do it to prevent a global financial collapse.

If you own shares of AIG that you bought at $70 per and are now worth $2 per and want to sell them, you might try calling Hank Greenberg. He may still have enough cash to bail you out.

Whitewashing the bad econ news

New figures for 2007 are grim, no matter how the press is reporting them.

Pay no nevermind to the stream of new stories bringing glimmers of good news about how Americans are faring in the last stages of the Bush Era.

The facts and figures for 2007 about who's living in poverty and who doesn't have health insurance and whose wages have shrunk are coursing through the Web right now, courtesy of the Census Bureau.

And these factoids are being misplayed left and right. Practically all of the media are simply rewriting the Census Bureau's press release.

You have to go straight to people who cut through the bullshit — and that includes the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Catholic Charities USA — if you want the straight scoop.

First, let's note, as most of the current stories de-emphasize — that almost 40 million Americans are living in poverty. That doesn't include the millions who are simply poor. As I noted on August 18, the federal poverty line is absurdly low.

As for the misplaying and downplaying of gloomy figures in today's coverage (which you'll see splashed across the media tonight and tomorrow), you'll have to plow through my fairly lengthy explanation with examples (sorry about that), but this is what I mean:

Judging by the AP account — which no doubt will be picked up by practically every other media outlet in the U.S. — the Census Bureau's latest figures for 2007 seem like fairly good news. Here's the AP:

The Census Bureau reports that the number of people lacking health insurance dropped by more than 1 million in 2007, the first annual decline since the Bush administration took office.

The nation's poverty rate held steady at 12.5 percent, not statistically different from the 12.3 percent in 2006. That meant there were 37.3 million people living in poverty in 2007.

The statistics released Tuesday do not take into account the consequences of the economic downturn that began late last year.

Census says 45.7 million people — 15.3 percent of the population — were uninsured in 2007. That's down from 47 million in 2006.

The median — or midpoint — household income rose slightly to $50,200, marking the third consecutive annual increase.

As I write, the New York Times hasn't deigned to post anything yet. But the L.A. Times already has this:

'Health insurance coverage in U.S. rises'

The number of people in the United States without health insurance fell to 45.7 million in 2007 from 47 million a year earlier, primarily because of an expansion in government-provided coverage for children, the U.S. Census Bureau said today.

Real median household income climbed for a third year in 2007, up 1.3% to $50,233, according to the annual census report on income, poverty and health insurance coverage.

Meanwhile, the U.S. poverty rate remained statistically unchanged at 12.5% in 2007, with 37.3 million living in poverty, up from 36.5 million a year earlier.

The rate of people without health insurance declined to 15.3% in 2007, down from 15.8% a year earlier. Census officials attributed the unexpected dip to the rise in the number of children, particularly poor children, receiving government-sponsored health coverage.

"This is the main reason for the fall in the uninsured rate for children and for the fall in the overall uninsured rate," said David Johnson, a census official. "The fall in private insurance was similar to recent years. That fall was offset by the rise in government insurance."

A little better, though the headline is misleading because private insurance has actually fallen.

In any case, here's the real story — from the CBPP's Robert Greenstein:

Despite modest improvements in overall median income and health insurance coverage, the new Census data are disquieting. Though 2007 was the sixth (and likely the final) year of an economic expansion, poverty was significantly higher, the median income of non-elderly households significantly lower, and the number and percentage of Americans who are uninsured substantially greater than in 2001 — even though the economy was in recession that year.

This is unprecedented. Never before on record has poverty been higher and median income for working-age households lower at the end of a multi-year economic expansion than at the beginning. The new data add to the mounting evidence that the gains from the 2001-2007 expansion were concentrated among high-income Americans.

Greenstein continues with a shrewd analysis that the standard media outlets simply won't ever do with such facts and figs:

Compared to 2006, overall median household income edged up 1.3 percent in 2007. Median income for “working age” households — those headed by someone under 65 — remained statistically unchanged, however, and the number (although not the percentage) of Americans living in poverty increased by 816,000 people to 37.3 million.

In addition, the number of children living in poverty jumped by 500,000 to 13.3 million, and the child poverty rate climbed from 17.4 percent in 2006 to 18.0 percent in 2007. There was some welcome news on child health insurance – the number of children lacking health insurance declined in 2007, but it remained 400,000 above the number of children who lacked insurance three years earlier, in 2004.

Greenstein's analysis continues with worse news on a broader front:

The data for 2007 are of particular concern given that the economy is now in a slowdown, and poverty is almost certainly higher now — and incomes lower — than in 2007. The 2007 levels — already disappointing because they are worse than those for the 2001 recession — are likely to constitute a high-water mark for the next few years. This suggests that significant pain may lie ahead for many Americans.

The number and percentage of Americans who are uninsured also are likely to rise in 2008, and probably in 2009 as well given widespread forecasts that unemployment is likely to continue rising at least through the first part of that year. The numbers of uninsured parents and children are likely to grow as employers lay off more workers and states consider cuts in their Medicaid programs to help balance their budgets during the economic slowdown. Congress and the President can help cushion this blow — and avert cuts in Medicaid that further swell the ranks of the uninsured — by temporarily boosting federal support for state Medicaid programs as they did during the last downturn. Policymakers also could reconsider children’s health legislation. The nation missed an excellent opportunity to make major progress in reducing the number of uninsured children when President Bush twice vetoed legislation last year that the Congressional Budget Office estimated would result in 4 million uninsured children gaining coverage.

More broadly, the next President and Congress should consider setting a national goal to reduce poverty and acting upon it, as former Prime Minister Tony Blair did in the United Kingdom. A number of charitable organizations and poverty experts have called for establishing a national goal to cut poverty in half over the coming decade.

Pretty good, and the CBPP gives you a link to the figures themselves.

Also good at plucking the right stats from those figures, Catholic Charities USA picks some that count:

Rev. Larry Snyder, president of Catholic Charities USA, issued the following statement regarding new statistics released today by the U.S. Census Bureau that show 800,000 more people are living in poverty in the United States:

"It is unacceptable that in a nation that is as prosperous as ours that 37.3 million people, including 13.3 million children, continue to live in poverty. This increase indicates that reducing poverty is not a priority for this nation."


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