Freddy & Tony Go Neck & Neck

The new Marist Poll suggests a shift in the Democratic landscape. Not only does Anthony Weiner have a strong grasp on second place among registered Democrats, among likely voters he and Fernando Ferrer are just about tied (Ferrer 32, Weiner 30). Of course, campaigns like to say, "Polls go up and polls do down," and they're right, but the fact is polls hint at trends when they go up and down, and the apparent trend here is a surge for Weiner. He's gained 10 points in three days in the Marist survey.

In the past week or so polls have predicted just about every possible order-of-finish for the Dems. Quinnipiac has it Ferrer-Weiner-Miller-Field. Pace calls it Ferrer-Miller-Fields-Weiner. The New York Times predicts Ferrer-Weiner-Fields-Miller. All hint that Ferrer hasn't got the magic 40 percent yet. But until Marist's Friday poll, none have suggested that Ferrer might not place first.

He still probably will. The tricky part is that the debates are over, so it might be tough for Ferrer to arrest the dynamic in the race that seems (assuming the polls are close to right) to be moving toward Weiner. But there's difference between "likely" voters in polls and "actual" voters on Tuesday. For Freddy and everyone else, it's all about turnout.