Simply put, Fernando Ferrer's chances today live in the Bronxin the dusty-brown apartment high-rises and the neat middle class row houses of the borough that raised him from Fox Street to the doorstep of City Hall. At polling places off the borough's Third Avenue spine, reports at mid-morning Tuesday from places like PS 42 on Claremont Parkway and PS 5 on 149th and Jackson were of "good" turnout, even "brisk," especially considering that the major rush goes from 4 p.m., when folks start to get home from work, until the polls close at 9. Other sites, like PS 28 off East Tremont, saw merely a "trickle." Jacqueline Smith, keeping an eye on the polls at Washington and 170th, said turnout was "about what we expected." At Bronx County Democratic headquarters on Westchester Square, the feeling was optimistic. As vans headed out carrying volunteers to knock on doors, and then returned, the reports from the field were good: a lot of enthusiasm. But only for Ferrera stack of Bloomberg posters was thrust unceremoniously into a garbage pail.