The Morgenthau Brand Name Gets a Test
A lot - that is, if the findings of a poll commissioned back in January when Morgenthau seemed poised to back someone else -- former top assistant Dan Castleman -- can be transferred to Vance.
The poll of 500
At the time, most voters didn't even recognize the names of four potential candidates -- Castleman, Snyder, Vance, and gun control expert Richard Aborn. Of those who said they knew the candidates, Snyder got the most backing with 15 percent. Vance - whose famous father was Jimmy Carter's Secretary of State - was next up at 7 percent.
But almost everyone said they knew Morgenthau, and he pulled
a whopping 70 percent approval rating as D.A. Almost half - 47 percent - wanted
to see his successor continue Morgy's policies. One-third of voters said they'd
be "more inclined" to back a candidate endorsed by Morgenthau.
And when pollsters told respondents that Morgenthau
considered Castleman - then the chief assistant D.A. and veteran prosecutor of
high-profile mob and corruption cases - his "right hand man" and "by far the most experienced and able
candidate to succeed him," those positive feelings quickly transferred over.
Castleman pulled a 71 percent positive rating, against 62 for Aborn, 59 for
Snyder, and 53 percent for Vance.
The poll's final tally - reached after voters were given a
detailed walk-through of Castleman's law enforcement achievements and reminded
of Morgenthau's likely backing - was 43 percent leaning for the former
assistant, 16 percent for Snyder, 7 for
Aborn, and 6 for Vance.
All that work went for naught a couple of months later when Morgenthau
reversed gears, opting to back Vance instead. Castleman angrily quit and has
not chosen sides in the D.A. dogfight.
Morgenthau yesterday did his best to lend his star power to
his chosen candidate. He praised Vance as the "best qualified by his
experiences and his views" and repeatedly underscored the value of "fairness"
and "integrity" - watchwords that are intended as counters to the voluble
But one major variable from the earlier Castleman poll that could
diminish the importance of Morgy's blessings is the experience ratio. Pollsters
in January were able to detail Castleman's many achievements as a top Morgenthau
prosecutor for 30 years; Vance has his own strong resume, but he worked in the "Law
and Order" office for just six years in the 1980s before moving to
The only other poll numbers that have surfaced so far come
from a survey conducted for Snyder that was reported this month by the Daily News' Michael Saul. That poll showed Snyder ahead with 24
percent, with 11 for Vance, and just 5 percent for Aborn.
The other noteworthy numbers, however, are political
endorsements, where Aborn, who was considered the dark horse of the race, has
been the hands-down winner. So far, he's nabbed 17 currently elected officials, along
with former police commissioner Bill Bratton; Vance has three, including
Morgenthau, as well as ex mayor David Dinkins who was at Thursday's endorsement.
Snyder has just one, although another ex-mayor, Ed Koch, is also backing her.
Asked at his press conference why he thought so many officials have endorsed Aborn,
Morgenthau, 89, didn't miss a beat. "You mean those folks in