New Poll Suggests Bloomberg Will Only Win in Small Landslide

If his non-lead holds, Thompson is headed for the Democrats' most unembarrassing defeat since 1993 (not counting the 2001 election, in which the confusion following 9/11 almost got New Yorkers to elect Mark Green to serious office). It compares favorably to Ruth Messenger's 41-59 loss to Giuliani, and Fernando Ferrer's 39-58 loss to Bloomberg in 2005...

Also, if you want to dream big, Quinnipiac notes that Ferrer was 19 points down at this point in the 2005 race; if Thompson pulls a similar comeback, that means a squeaker, with victory imminent until Bloomberg operatives hand out $100 bills outside polling stations.

Another Thompson advantage is in popularity and ignorance: he has a 38 to 9 favorability rating, leaving 52 percent without enough information to make a judgment on him. This presents an opportunity for Thompson to further improve his margin of defeat by projecting a likable image. We suggest backrubs. Everybody likes backrubs. Thompson could go around giving backrubs, and people would say, "This is the kind of mayor I would love to have rub my back." Of course in our litigious society someone might sue for sexual harassment, but this would show that Thompson is the kind of person who is not worried about political correctness.

The poll also shows Mayor Bloomberg's approval rating is its lowest of his current term -- a mere 63 percent. Mark Green laps the field for Public Advocate, perhaps due to the fact that he is the only contender "with any name recognition." (Norm Siegel, get rubbing backs!) In the Comptroller race no one has any name recognition, and Don't Know triumphs with 55 percent, with John Liu a distant second.