Club for Growth Says Hoffman Leads in NY-23
This is a rather large difference for one week. It may have to do with sample size (300 voters vs. Research 2000's 600), or makeup: while Election 2000 calls their sample of "likely voters," Club for Growth's calls theirs "very likely." While the former poll's respondents were 42 percent Republican, the latter's are 48.3 GOP. (In April the Board of Elections had 43.1 percent of the district registered Republican. Both polls, though, have higher Democratic representation than the BOE records: 32 and 36, respectively, versus 31 on the rolls ) Or it may be that Palin has more pull in NY-23 than previously suspected.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is clearly focusing on Hoffman, with a recent ad attacking Owens' "millionaire" Conservative rival rather than Scozzafava. The American Spectator is excited by the poll, predicting that if it's accurate, "Newt Gingrich, Pete Sessions, John Boehner, and all the party hacks" who supported Scozzafava "will be eating so much rancid crow that they are bound to cough and choke and splutter." The election is a week from Tuesday.